证券公司财务预测与估值模型

可比公司分析 Comparables Analysis

公司名称中信证券海通证券广发证券华泰证券招商证券光大证券宏源证券方正证券国元证券长江证券西南证券山西证券兴业证券国海证券西部证券东吴证券东北证券国金证券太平洋End

股价（元，2012-9-24） 10.77 8.66 12.22 8.90 9.68 11.34 17.13 4.09 10.58 8.45 8.55 8.19 8.84 9.19 12.85 7.67 15.22 12.96 5.44总股本（百万股） 11,017 9,585 5,919 5,600 4,661 3,418 1,986 6,100 1,9 2,371 2,323 2,400 2,200 1,792 1,200 2,000 979 1,000 1,6流通股总市值10A6.7%3.3%8.7%3.3%3.4%3.7%4.7%4.5%3.4%3.6%4.3%2.7%3.3%4.3%3.9%3.0%2.8%4.0%3.4%11A8.4%3.1%2.4%1.8%2.4%3.1%2.7%0.9%2.4%1.4%1.3%1.3%2.1%2.0%2.0%1.3%0.9%2.3%2.9%总资产收益率（百万股）（百万元） 9,815 118,652 8,092 83,004 2,455 72,334 2,085 49,840 2,494 45,119 3,418 38,760 1,461 34,024 3,315 24,949 1,9 20,780 2,371 20,037 1,2 19,858 1,458 19,6 1,580 19,448 460 16,468 200 15,420 500 15,340 639 14,4 1,000 12,963 1,6 8,996总资产收益率12E2.8%3.3%3.5%2.4%2.5%4.7%2.7%1.9%2.2%3.8%3.0%3.5%2.4%0.0%2.1%1.9%1.0%6.0%0.0%13E3.1%3.8%3.5%2.7%2.6%5.5%2.8%2.2%2.1%4.5%3.8%3.9%2.7%0.0%2.2%2.2%1.1%6.2%0.0%14E3.6%3.9%3.6%2.5%2.6%6.0%2.8%2.8%2.1%5.6%3.9%4.2%2.9%0.0%2.3%2.2%1.0%6.2%0.0%10A14.5%6.5%6.4%5.3%8.1%6.8%8.9%1.0%3.8%3.0%0.9%3.1%4.8%2.5%6.9%3.0%5.1%6.7%7.3%11A6.6%7.0%8.8%8.0%8.4%12.9%9.5%5.5%3.9%12.6%6.1%9.2%7.0%7.3%7.8%6.3%6.5%8.1%0.0%净资产收益率12E5.6%6.5%8.0%6.3%7.5%12.1%8.8%3.7%3.5%11.8%5.1%8.0%6.1%4.7%7.0%4.6%5.5%7.4%0.0%13E7.3%7.6%9.4%8.4%8.7%17.1%9.1%7.9%4.1%22.2%7.0%10.5%7.9%10.2%8.0%7.7%7.9%8.3%0.0%14E16.0%7.9%17.9%10.3%13.4%9.3%17.8%14.0%6.1%13.0%11.6%7.0%9.1%9.1%17.1%14.0%15.2%13.9%10.4%每股收益（元/股）10A 1.13 0.43 1.39 0.61 0.90 0.62 0. 0.26 0.47 0.57 0.35 0.18 0.35 0.09 0.53 0.39 0.82 0.42 0.1411A 1.14 0.36 0.69 0.31 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.02 0.28 0.15 0.04 0.08 0.18 0.09 0.22 0.11 0.25 0.22 0.1012E 0.45 0.39 0.47 0.38 0.45 0.49 0.52 0.10 0.29 0.31 0.22 0.13 0.26 0.17 0.24 0.17 0.20 0.32na13E 0.56 0.47 0.56 0.48 0.53 0.59 0.62 0.13 0.35 0.37 0.29 0.16 0.32 0.25 0.30 0.22 0.25 0.40na14E 0.65 0.55 0.65 0.55 0.62 0.71 0.73 0.18 0.42 0.49 0.34 0.19 0.38 0.32 0.33 0.26 0.31 0.46na10A 6.39 4. 3.28 5.87 5.14 6.65 3.67 1.42 7.63 4.02 4.79 2.58 3.82 0.12 2.60 2.09 3. 3.02 1.18每股净资产（元/股）11A 7.86 4.70 5.34 5.93 5.29 6.28 3.59 2.33 7.53 4.85 4.26 2.48 3.83 1.50 2. 3.69 3.15 3.24 1.2812E 8.00 6.02 5.59 6.18 5.67 6.63 6.48 2.41 7.74 5.19 4.48 2.58 3.96na 3.87na 4.82 4.05na净资产（元/股）13E 8.44 6.44 6.06 6.31 6.11 7.33 6.91 2.51 8.01 5.49 4.70 2.70 4.17na 4.13na 5.03 4.43na14E 8.98 7.00 6.59 6.65 6.52 7.57 6.42 2.59 8.38 5.70 4.99 2.85 4.46na 4.41na 3.93 4.85na10A9.5 x20.2 x8.8 x14.7 x10.8 x18.4 x19.3 x15.6 x22.6 x14.8 x24.7 x45.4 x25.5 x101.7 x24.1 x19.7 x18.5 x30.9 x40.1 x11A9.4 x24.2 x17.8 x28.4 x22.5 x26.4 x39.4 x169.0 x37.3 x57.7 x207.0 x105.8 x48.4 x98.2 x58.6 x69.0 x61.4 x59.3 x53.2 x市盈率12E24.0 x22.2 x26.1 x23.7 x21.7 x23.0 x32.8 x40.8 x36.1 x26.9 x38.3 x60.8 x34.1 x.4 x.2 x46.3 x77.0 x40.4 xna13E19.4 x18.5 x22.0 x18.5 x18.2 x19.4 x27.6 x31.1 x30.5 x22.6 x29.7 x50.2 x27.8 x37.3 x42.5 x35.0 x61.9 x32.5 xna14E16.7 x15.8 x18.8 x16.2 x15.6 x15.9 x23.5 x22.9 x25.5 x17.3 x25.1 x42.3 x23.5 x28.9 x38.4 x29.9 x49.0 x28.0 xna10A1.7 x1.9 x3.7 x1.5 x1.9 x1.7 x4.7 x2.9 x1.4 x2.1 x1.8 x3.2 x2.3 x77.2 x5.0 x3.7 x4.3 x4.3 x4.6 x市净率11A1.4 x1.8 x2.3 x1.5 x1.8 x1.8 x4.8 x1.8 x1.4 x1.7 x2.0 x3.3 x2.3 x6.1 x4.9 x2.1 x4.8 x4.0 x4.3 x

12E1.3 x1.4 x2.2 x1.4 x1.7 x1.7 x2.6 x1.7 x1.4 x1.6 x1.9 x3.2 x2.2 xna3.3 xna3.2 x3.2 xna

13E1.3 x1.3 x2.0 x1.4 x1.6 x1.5 x2.5 x1.6 x1.3 x1.5 x1.8 x3.0 x2.1 xna3.1 xna3.0 x2.9 xna

14E1.2 x1.2 x1.9 x1.3 x1.5 x1.5 x2.7 x1.6 x1.3 x1.5 x1.7 x2.9 x2.0 xna2.9 xna3.9 x2.7 xna